{
  "schema_version": "var-diagnostic-research-program-closure-v2.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-29",
  "program": "reduced-form VAR dynamic-response publication gate research (v1.85-v1.90)",
  "chain": [
    {
      "release": "v1.85",
      "question": "Is the production h=12 adjusted Portmanteau finite-sample calibrated under the platform lag-selection procedure, and is BG or Edgerton-Shukur an eligible replacement?",
      "finding": "PT, BG and ES all failed the preregistered joint Layer A+B gate",
      "disposition": "no_eligible_replacement",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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        "var_residual_diagnostic_reference_validation.json": "684e49a070c932385fba823e95358e812129c840a72afc000a776634f7853026",
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        "var_residual_diagnostic_research_conclusion.json": "5d60d16a0d78b6d41df72c34e4e7028f8d50c9844bd1df9e3dbaca56d4720021"
      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.851",
      "question": "How should Layer-B rejection rates be interpreted?",
      "finding": "Layer-B rates are joint lag-selection/specification/diagnostic procedure behaviour, not pure test size; BIC underselects true VAR(2) in the v1.85 designs",
      "disposition": "interpretation_clarification; decision unchanged",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.86",
      "question": "Can a selection-aware bootstrap calibrate the residual test of the selected model?",
      "finding": "both families passed the selected-model-adequacy synthetic gate; iid residual selected by tie rule; true-VAR(2) selection-aware size untested",
      "disposition": "synthetic_gate_passed_phase_B_requires_owner_approval",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.87",
      "question": "How does BIC recover the true lag in finite samples?",
      "finding": "recovery of lag 2 is governed by lag-2 information relative to the BIC penalty; underselection concentrated where psi(T) < 1",
      "disposition": "descriptive",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.88",
      "question": "How much lag-2 evidence do the five formal country VARs have, and what does the bootstrap say?",
      "finding": "four units select lag 2 in the intermediate region and narrowly reject the asymptotic test; the bootstrap rejects none",
      "disposition": "research_evidence_only",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
        "var_country_lag_identifiability_design.json": "5d2890111f28a19252ffc1c562398bae449cff3c8ab863cd1faf03317570a360",
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        "var_phase_b_authorization.json": "ade42d8ba588cedce28f32d253a7eb8db01e63cdd4cb9f7b53c09c5f16fe045c",
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      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.89",
      "question": "Is the bootstrap calibrated with useful power in the country-matched region?",
      "finding": "materially conservative (0.7-4.1% at psi 0.75-1.25) with weak power (outcome C)",
      "disposition": "country_matched_calibration_does_not_support_production_adoption",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "release": "v1.90",
      "question": "What residual dependence remains in the five formal VARs and could it indicate misspecification?",
      "finding": "weak, diffuse dependence; 2020-2021 concentration; modest HICP seasonal dynamics; no probe removes it; no justified extension identified",
      "disposition": "descriptive_attribution",
      "production_impact": "none",
      "artifacts": {
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        "var_residual_cross_lag_results.json": "b5daaf4c07bffe09271462bb0c945ae12285f2310c8fda7b0bb76af6465a90f9",
        "var_portmanteau_attribution.json": "12fa1d6425e8d5d32a673259291def3f696c8b4174a86c795be25ab6a6e4cc76",
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        "var_residual_period_concentration.json": "f86db83203cb63951c06b0dbed2d30c6c8c5a001c5285ca29fc1e029113f68ff",
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      }
    }
  ],
  "why_no_gate_is_eligible": {
    "asymptotic_portmanteau": "not finite-sample calibrated under the platform procedure (v1.85, v1.89)",
    "investigated_bootstrap": "conservative with weak power where the countries are (v1.89); v1.88 non-rejections are weak evidence",
    "bg_and_es": "not eligible (v1.85)"
  },
  "evidence_not_collapsed": "the record keeps the conflicting signals side by side (asymptotic rejections vs bootstrap non-rejections vs weak diffuse attribution) and does not convert them into a pass/fail verdict",
  "program_state": "frozen",
  "reopening_requires": [
    "genuinely new methodological evidence or a separately preregistered research question",
    "owner approval"
  ],
  "production_changed": false,
  "production_change_authorized": false,
  "artifact_count": 59
}