{ "schema_version": "macro-driver-dictionary-v1.51", "generated_at": "2026-08-30", "record_count": 10, "records": [ { "driver_id": "policy_rate", "name_zh": "政策利率", "name_en": "Central bank policy rate", "economic_role": "domestic_policy_driver", "role": "domestic_policy_driver", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country or euro-area common", "scope": "country or euro-area common", "shared_series": true, "timing_convention": "monthly end-of-period", "regime_sensitive": true, "unit": "% p.a.", "source": "BIS", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_change_bp" ], "economic_interpretation": "Central-bank selected policy-rate level or observed monthly basis-point change; not a monetary-policy shock.", "limitations": "Euro-area common rate is not a country-specific policy decision; instrument regimes can change." }, { "driver_id": "long_term_government_yield", "name_zh": "长期政府债券收益率", "name_en": "Long-term government bond yield", "economic_role": "domestic_financial_condition", "role": "domestic_financial_condition", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "% p.a.", "source": "Eurostat", "transformation_options": [ "level" ], "economic_interpretation": "Monthly average yield for approximately 10-year central-government bonds.", "limitations": "Serbia remains missing because a comparable official series was not established." }, { "driver_id": "bilateral_fx_local_per_eur", "name_zh": "本币兑欧元汇率", "name_en": "Bilateral FX: local currency per EUR", "economic_role": "domestic_financial_condition", "role": "domestic_financial_condition", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "local currency per EUR", "source": "BIS computed cross-rate", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "Increase means local-currency depreciation against EUR.", "limitations": "Only non-euro currencies; computed from two BIS USD cross-rates." }, { "driver_id": "eur_usd_common", "name_zh": "欧元兑美元共同汇率", "name_en": "EUR/USD common exchange rate", "economic_role": "external_common_driver", "role": "external_common_driver", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "euro_area", "scope": "euro_area", "shared_series": true, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "USD per EUR", "source": "BIS", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "Common euro-area external price, not a national FX decision.", "limitations": "Shared regional series, never country-specific." }, { "driver_id": "nominal_effective_exchange_rate", "name_zh": "名义有效汇率", "name_en": "Nominal effective exchange rate", "economic_role": "domestic_financial_condition", "role": "domestic_financial_condition", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "index", "source": "BIS", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "Under the BIS convention, a higher broad-basket NEER index means effective appreciation or strengthening.", "limitations": "A higher index does not by itself imply overvaluation; basket composition follows BIS methodology." }, { "driver_id": "real_effective_exchange_rate", "name_zh": "实际有效汇率", "name_en": "Real effective exchange rate", "economic_role": "domestic_financial_condition", "role": "domestic_financial_condition", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "index", "source": "BIS", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "Under the BIS convention, a higher broad-basket REER index means effective appreciation or strengthening.", "limitations": "A higher index does not by itself imply overvaluation; price/cost deflator and basket methodology follow BIS." }, { "driver_id": "hicp_energy_index", "name_zh": "HICP 能源指数", "name_en": "HICP Energy index", "economic_role": "domestic_price_outcome", "role": "domestic_price_outcome", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "index 2015=100", "source": "Eurostat", "transformation_options": [ "level" ], "economic_interpretation": "Domestic consumer energy-price outcome.", "limitations": "Not an external or exogenous energy shock." }, { "driver_id": "hicp_energy_annual_rate", "name_zh": "HICP 能源同比", "name_en": "HICP Energy annual rate", "economic_role": "domestic_price_outcome", "role": "domestic_price_outcome", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "country", "scope": "country", "shared_series": false, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "%", "source": "Eurostat", "transformation_options": [ "yoy_rate" ], "economic_interpretation": "Domestic consumer energy-price annual rate.", "limitations": "Not an external or exogenous energy shock." }, { "driver_id": "brent_crude_price_usd", "name_zh": "布伦特原油价格", "name_en": "Brent crude oil price", "economic_role": "external_common_driver", "role": "external_common_driver", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "global", "scope": "global", "shared_series": true, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "USD/bbl", "source": "World Bank", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change", "12m_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "Global observed energy-price movement.", "limitations": "Monthly change is registered separately as a shock candidate; neither level nor change is an identified supply or geopolitical shock." }, { "driver_id": "europe_natural_gas_price_usd", "name_zh": "欧洲天然气价格", "name_en": "European natural gas price", "economic_role": "external_common_driver", "role": "external_common_driver", "identification_default": "observed_driver", "identification_status": "observed_driver", "frequency": "monthly", "series_scope_type": "europe", "scope": "europe", "shared_series": true, "timing_convention": "monthly observation or monthly average as documented", "regime_sensitive": false, "unit": "USD/mmbtu", "source": "World Bank", "transformation_options": [ "level", "monthly_log_change", "12m_log_change" ], "economic_interpretation": "European observed energy-price movement.", "limitations": "Monthly change is registered separately as a shock candidate; neither level nor change is an identified supply or geopolitical shock." } ] }