{
  "schema_version": "analysis-skill-registry-v2.0",
  "frozen_output_reference": "analysis/v173_frozen_output_hashes.json",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-29",
  "records": [
    {
      "skill_id": "panel_local_projections",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "identified joint JK shocks; fixed balanced 8 countries; common outcome identities; >=96 time clusters; author-reference multi-shock validation; production validation; UI and full release gates",
      "readiness_reference": "panel-local-projections/panel_lp_readiness_registry.json",
      "note": "Aggregate ECB shocks are common across countries; panel rows are not independent shock replications. Fixed-eight-country t-LAHR pointwise group inference remains active. Current baseline definition warnings are disclosed; the four-outcome historical extension is closed and blocked. Whole-path inference remains closed and blocked; IK and country-pair formal tests remain registry_only.",
      "reason_zh": "固定 8 国、四项共同结果的 2015–2025 正式样本继续启用点态推断；基线定义警示已经公开；四指标历史扩展及跨期联合推断研究均已结案且未启用。",
      "required_data": ["identified joint JK MP / CBI shocks", "fixed AT DE SK SI CZ HU PL RO monthly panel", "registered common outcomes"],
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Panel Local Projections",
        "category": "panel_econometrics",
        "description": "使用共同 ECB MP / CBI 冲击、滞后增广和按月份聚类的推断，估计固定四国欧元组与固定四国非欧元组的动态响应及点态差异。",
        "optional_data": [],
        "parameters": ["outcome", "shock", "confidence"],
        "minimum_observations": 96,
        "supported_spatial_level": ["fixed_country_groups"],
        "supported_frequency": ["monthly"],
        "output_schema": ["group_responses", "pointwise_group_difference", "time_cluster_diagnostics", "data_trace"],
        "diagnostics": ["fixed_eight_country_balance", "time_cluster_count", "reference_alignment", "parameterization_identity", "outcome_identity", "rank_and_condition", "shock_support"],
        "limitations": [
          "8 个国家不等于 8 次独立冲击；面板行数不是独立冲击观测数。",
          "仅代表本平台固定四国欧元组与固定四国非欧元组，不代表整个地区。",
          "仅提供逐预测期点态推断；跨预测期联合推断已经研究，但当前验证程序未达到 95% 联合覆盖门槛，因此不提供联合置信带或全路径显著性检验。",
          "国家对国家正式差异检验保持 registry_only。",
          "IK 小样本修正因作者双冲击分支的适用性限制保持 registry_only。",
          "克罗地亚因 2023 年欧元加入的制度断点排除，塞尔维亚因共同月度覆盖不足排除。",
          "不进入指标与综合指数国家排名矩阵；不替代冻结的单国 LP。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      }
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "composite_indicators",
      "state": "active",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "综合指标",
        "category": "composite_indicators",
        "description": "按透明固定规则整合年度指标，比较通过同年、同定义门禁的综合指数。",
        "optional_data": [],
        "parameters": [],
        "minimum_observations": 0,
        "supported_spatial_level": [],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "annual"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "score",
          "drivers",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [],
        "limitations": [
          "综合指数不是预测、因果效应或投资建议。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "综合指数"
      },
      "required_data": []
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "panel_econometrics",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": ">=8 countries, >=8 years, >=4 qualified key variables",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Panel Econometrics",
        "category": "panel_econometrics",
        "description": "基于 2015–2025 官方年度面板运行 Pooled OLS、国家固定效应和国家加年份固定效应。",
        "optional_data": [
          "country_fixed_effects",
          "time_fixed_effects",
          "clustered_standard_errors"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "estimator",
          "fixed_effects",
          "standard_error_method"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 64,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "annual"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "coefficients",
          "standard_errors",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "sample_coverage",
          "multicollinearity",
          "residual_checks",
          "specification_notes"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "association 不等于 causality；固定效应本身不提供因果识别。",
          "部分可比口径和 pending 观测不会进入估计。",
          "HC1 稳健标准误使用渐近正态推断；按国家聚类标准误使用聚类稳健协方差 + Student-t 参考分布（df = G − 1）。",
          "面板估计使用多国联合样本，单一 country 参数不筛选面板；请在工作区选择国家集合。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      },
      "required_data": [
        ">=8_countries",
        ">=8_years",
        "comparable_key_variables",
        "traceable_official_observations"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "network_dependency",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "eligible partner coverage ratio >= 0.95 on complete bilateral edges",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "贸易网络分析 Trade Network Analysis",
        "category": "network_analysis",
        "description": "双边货物贸易伙伴集中度分析：2015–2025 年十国完整伙伴边（UN Comtrade TOTAL goods，进/出口），输出 HHI、头部伙伴、中国份额、德国份额与多样化指标。",
        "optional_data": [
          "sector_nodes",
          "project_links",
          "regional_nodes"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "network_definition",
          "edge_weight",
          "time_window"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 30,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "annual"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "network_summary",
          "node_metrics",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "edge_coverage",
          "weight_comparability",
          "isolated_nodes"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "描述性集中度指标不是一般中心性；betweenness / eigenvector / PageRank 在完整区域图定义清楚之前暂缓。",
          "中心性不等于政治影响，集中度不等于风险，中国份额不等于政治依赖。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "描述性网络分析"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "directed_edges",
        "comparable_edge_weights",
        "time_reference"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "event_window_analysis",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "verified event with month precision; >=12 pre and >=6 true post monthly observations (event month excluded); macro-driver outcomes remain descriptive",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "事件窗口分析 Event Window Analysis",
        "category": "event_analysis",
        "description": "描述性事件窗口分析：基于月度高频数据，报告已核验事件前后的指标变化（事件前均值、事件期数值、事件后均值、变化幅度），不构成因果识别。",
        "optional_data": [
          "overlapping_event_flags"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "event_window",
          "outcome_indicator"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 18,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "event_window_points",
          "pre_post_summary",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "window_coverage",
          "overlapping_events",
          "missing_periods"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "只描述事件时间附近的指标变化，不输出 effect / impact / 因果效应。",
          "完整窗口要求至少 12 个事件前月度观测与 6 个事件后观测；不足时标记为探索性短窗口。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "描述性事件分析"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "verified_event_date_monthly_precision",
        "monthly_outcome_series"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "macro_driver_explorer",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "official source, documented role, timing, orientation, transformation and identification status",
      "note": "Data exploration only; no causal effect, forecast, risk score or shock response.",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "宏观驱动数据探索",
        "category": "macro_time_series",
        "description": "探索官方宏观驱动数据的角色、时间、方向、变换及识别状态。",
        "optional_data": [],
        "parameters": [],
        "minimum_observations": 0,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "observations",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "source_quality",
          "timing",
          "transformation",
          "identification_status"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "仅用于数据探索，不输出因果效应、预测、风险分数或冲击响应。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "数据探索"
      },
      "required_data": []
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "reduced_form_var",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "formal baseline v1/v2 and exploratory fallback are separate; >=60 continuous monthly observations, profile-mapped ADF gate, common-sample BIC lag selection, parameter ratio >=4, companion-root stability and horizon-specific residual diagnostics",
      "readiness_reference": "var_country_readiness.json",
      "capability_reference": "var_capability_status.json",
      "publication_boundary_reference": "var_dynamic_response_publication_boundary.json",
      "research_conclusion_reference": "var_residual_diagnostic_research_conclusion.json",
      "note": "Reduced-form VAR estimation workbench and coefficient diagnostics are active; active does not mean formal dynamic-response publication. Estimable does not imply horizon-specific dynamic-response-ready. The current formal v1/v2 baselines have zero countries passing the complete h=12 dynamic-response gate, so no formal orthogonalized dynamic response is currently publishable. v1.85 residual diagnostic research found no eligible replacement. Layer B failure reflects the joint lag-selection/specification/diagnostic procedure; it is not interpreted as pure diagnostic Type-I error. Formal dynamic response remains unavailable. v1.86 research: a selection-aware bootstrap calibration of the h=12 Portmanteau passed its preregistered synthetic gate, but it is not used in production and has not been evaluated on real-country data. v1.87 research characterized finite-sample BIC lag recovery against lag-2 signal strength (descriptive only; BIC remains the production criterion). v1.88 audited lag-2 evidence and ran the research bootstrap diagnostic on the five formal estimable country models as research evidence only; production readiness and the production diagnostic are unchanged. v1.89 country-matched calibration found that bootstrap materially conservative with weak power in the intermediate lag-2 region, so it does not support production adoption. v1.90 attribution research found the remaining residual dependence weak and diffuse (pandemic-period concentration, modest HICP seasonal dynamics) with no diagnostic probe removing it; no production change. v2.0 consolidates the boundary: coefficient estimation is available, the residual publication gate is unresolved (no validated finite-sample diagnostic), historical asymptotic rejections are not proof of misspecification, and formal dynamic responses remain unavailable. Exploratory search never replaces either formal baseline.",
      "diagnostic_calibration": {
        "residual_autocorrelation_h12_primary": {
          "production_diagnostic": "adjusted_portmanteau",
          "calibration_status": "not_size_validated_for_full_platform_procedure",
          "replacement": "none_eligible",
          "layer_A_metric_semantics": "conditional_diagnostic_size",
          "layer_B_metric_semantics": "selection_plus_specification_plus_diagnostic_procedure_rejection",
          "selection_decomposition_reference": "var_residual_diagnostic_layerB_selection_decomposition.json",
          "note_zh": "当前 h=12 adjusted Portmanteau 作为既有 production gate 保留，但 v1.85 synthetic study 显示当前 lag-selection + residual-diagnostic 联合流程未通过预注册有限样本门（Layer B 拒绝率是选滞后、设定与诊断的联合流程拒绝率，不是纯粹的诊断 size）；由于没有候选 replacement 通过同一预注册门，本版本不替换 gate，也不激活正式 IRF。"
        }
      },
      "presentation": {
        "name": "简化式 VAR（Reduced-form VAR）",
        "category": "macro_time_series",
        "description": "单国月度简化式 VAR：变换 → 平稳性检验 → 滞后选择 → 估计 → 稳定性与残差诊断 → 正交化简化式动态响应。逐国准入：一国数据不足不阻止其他国家。",
        "optional_data": [],
        "parameters": [
          "lag_order",
          "information_criterion",
          "sample_window",
          "transformation",
          "deterministic_terms"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 60,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "coefficient_matrices",
          "residual_covariance",
          "information_criteria",
          "stability",
          "residual_diagnostics",
          "conditional_orthogonalized_irf",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "stationarity",
          "lag_selection",
          "stability",
          "residual_autocorrelation_h12_primary",
          "residual_autocorrelation_h18_h24_sensitivity",
          "residual_month_of_year",
          "parameter_count_gate"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "简化式创新不等于已识别经济冲击；动态响应不构成因果效应。",
          "正交化 IRF 依赖变量排序；Cholesky 排序不等于结构识别。",
          "当前 formal baseline dynamic-response-ready country count = 0；正式 IRF publication unavailable。",
          "当前 h=12 adjusted Portmanteau 作为既有 production gate 保留，但 v1.85 synthetic study 显示当前 lag-selection + residual-diagnostic 联合流程未通过预注册有限样本门（Layer B 拒绝率是选滞后、设定与诊断的联合流程拒绝率，不是纯粹的诊断 size）；由于没有候选 replacement 通过同一预注册门，本版本不替换 gate，也不激活正式 IRF。",
          "正交化简化式响应只在 only_when_dynamic_response_ready 条件满足时输出。",
          "readiness 按 country × variable set × window × transformation 逐国评估；未通过完整 gate 的国家显示 unavailable。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "consistent_time_series",
        "documented_frequency",
        "sufficient_lags",
        "stationary_transformed_series"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "var_svar",
      "state": "deprecated_alias",
      "alias_of": "reduced_form_var",
      "note": "Legacy deep links map to reduced_form_var. This alias does not activate SVAR.",
      "hidden_reason": "仅兼容历史深链接，不作为独立方法"
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "svar",
      "state": "registry_only",
      "required_data": [
        "explicit_identification_strategy"
      ],
      "note": "Cholesky ordering is not structural identification.",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "SVAR（结构 VAR）",
        "category": "future_methods",
        "description": "结构冲击识别接口；需要显式识别策略。",
        "optional_data": [
          "short_run_restrictions",
          "long_run_restrictions",
          "sign_restrictions",
          "external_instruments"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "identification",
          "lag_order",
          "sample_window"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 60,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "monthly",
          "quarterly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "structural_irf",
          "identification_record",
          "diagnostics"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "identification_validity",
          "stationarity",
          "stability"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "当前版本不运行（保持 registry_only）。",
          "Cholesky 排序不自动构成结构识别。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      }
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "event_study",
      "state": "registry_only",
      "required_data": [
        "verified_event",
        "pre_window",
        "post_window",
        "comparison_design",
        "daily_monthly_or_quarterly_outcome"
      ],
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Formal Event Study（因果事件研究）",
        "category": "future_methods",
        "description": "事件窗口与结果变量变化分析接口；事件编码本身不构成因果识别。",
        "optional_data": [
          "comparison_group",
          "multiple_event_controls"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "event_window",
          "baseline_window",
          "comparison_design"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 20,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country",
          "region"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "daily",
          "monthly",
          "quarterly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "event_time_estimates",
          "confidence_intervals",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "pre_trends",
          "overlapping_events",
          "window_coverage"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "当前版本不运行（保持 registry_only / blocked）。",
          "低置信度或待编码事件不得进入估计。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      }
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "local_projections",
      "state": "active",
      "readiness_reference": "local-projections/lp_readiness_registry.json",
      "gate": "identified joint JK shocks + applicable country/outcome + common-horizon N >= 96 + validated lag-augmented estimator and path inference",
      "note": "Single-country baseline active; pointwise and sup-t inference active; validated finite-sample/shock-support diagnostics only; bias correction registry_only.",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Local Projections",
        "category": "macro_time_series",
        "description": "使用冻结的 JK MP / CBI 冲击，展示单国、联合冲击、滞后增广 Local Projections，在所有 horizon 共用样本上估计。",
        "optional_data": [
          "fixed_p2_sensitivity",
          "fixed_p6_sensitivity"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "country",
          "outcome",
          "horizon",
          "shock_component",
          "confidence_level"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 96,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "horizon_responses",
          "pointwise_confidence_intervals",
          "simultaneous_confidence_bands",
          "finite_sample_diagnostics",
          "shock_support_diagnostics",
          "influence_diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "shock_validity",
          "common_horizon_coverage",
          "lag_selection_once",
          "cross_language_reference",
          "path_covariance_validation",
          "sup_t_validation",
          "finite_sample_simulation",
          "shock_support_concentration",
          "leave_one_out_influence"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "点态置信区间用于单一 horizon；sup-t 同时置信带用于显示路径联合覆盖。",
          "偏差校正仍为已登记、未运行（registry_only）。",
          "有限样本模拟不是实际数据的偏差估计；冲击集中度不是有效性检验。",
          "非欧元国家结果是外部 ECB 溢出；CBI 0.25 只是数值归一化。",
          "不提供 Panel LP、状态依赖、SVAR 或 BVAR；跨国响应只可描述性并列，不作正式排名。"
        ],
        "supports_country": true,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "consistent_monthly_outcome",
        "identified_joint_jk_shocks",
        "common_horizon_sample",
        "validated_reference_estimator"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "bayesian_var",
      "state": "blocked",
      "reason": "blocked_by_prior_and_validation_design",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Bayesian VAR",
        "category": "future_methods",
        "description": "贝叶斯宏观动态分析接口；当前不设置先验、不生成后验结果。",
        "optional_data": [
          "prior_calibration",
          "external_forecasts"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "prior",
          "lag_order",
          "sample_window"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 60,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "quarterly",
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "posterior_summary",
          "credible_intervals",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "prior_sensitivity",
          "convergence",
          "posterior_predictive_checks"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "当前未建立可复核的先验、敏感性与后验验证方案，因此保持 blocked。",
          "不得把先验设定隐藏为客观事实。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "consistent_time_series",
        "documented_vintages"
      ],
      "reason_zh": "尚未建立可复核的先验、先验敏感性与后验验证设计，因此暂不可运行。"
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "causal_policy_analysis",
      "state": "registry_only",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "Causal Policy Analysis",
        "category": "future_methods",
        "description": "政策评估设计登记接口；只有识别假设和对照组成立时才讨论因果效应。",
        "optional_data": [
          "treatment_intensity",
          "regional_controls"
        ],
        "parameters": [
          "design",
          "treatment_definition",
          "estimation_window"
        ],
        "minimum_observations": 50,
        "supported_spatial_level": [
          "country",
          "region"
        ],
        "supported_frequency": [
          "annual",
          "quarterly",
          "monthly"
        ],
        "output_schema": [
          "effect_estimates",
          "uncertainty",
          "diagnostics",
          "data_trace",
          "limitations"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "identification_assumptions",
          "pre_trends",
          "placebo_tests",
          "robustness"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "当前版本不运行（保持 registry_only / blocked）。",
          "事件关联与时间先后不能替代因果识别。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "估计方法"
      },
      "required_data": [
        "verified_policy_timing",
        "outcome_series",
        "comparison_design"
      ]
    },
    {
      "skill_id": "monetary_policy_identification",
      "state": "active",
      "gate": "pinned author-reference replication",
      "readiness_reference": "identified-shocks/jk_author_reference_comparison.json",
      "note": "当前发布版本不重新估计冻结的 JK shocks。",
      "presentation": {
        "name": "货币政策冲击识别",
        "category": "macro_time_series",
        "description": "Jarociński–Karadi 作者参考验证的中位数符号限制 MP / CBI 分解，展示冻结的已验证结果。",
        "optional_data": [],
        "parameters": [],
        "minimum_observations": 0,
        "supported_spatial_level": [],
        "supported_frequency": [],
        "output_schema": [
          "identified_shocks",
          "author_reference_validation",
          "data_trace"
        ],
        "diagnostics": [
          "author_reference_validation"
        ],
        "limitations": [
          "在 JK 框架下识别不等于客观真实冲击。",
          "此入口展示冻结结果，不提供 PCA、旋转或冲击重新识别。"
        ],
        "supports_country": false,
        "method_kind": "识别方法"
      },
      "required_data": []
    }
  ],
  "high_frequency_roadmap": [
    "industrial_production_monthly",
    "hicp_monthly",
    "unemployment_monthly",
    "policy_rates",
    "bond_yields",
    "exchange_rates",
    "energy_prices"
  ],
  "macro_driver_roadmap": [
    "energy_price",
    "policy_interest_rate",
    "exchange_rate",
    "bond_yield"
  ],
  "categories": {
    "composite_indicators": "综合指标",
    "macro_time_series": "宏观与货币政策",
    "panel_econometrics": "面板计量",
    "event_analysis": "事件分析",
    "network_analysis": "贸易网络",
    "future_methods": "研究路线 / 未启用方法"
  }
}